TY - JOUR
T1 - Agent based simulation with data driven parameterization for evaluation of social acceptance of a geothermal development
T2 - a case study in Tsuchiyu, Fukushima, Japan
AU - Masuda, Shuntaro
AU - Bahr, Kyle
AU - Tsuchiya, Noriyoshi
AU - Takemori, Tatsuya
N1 - Funding Information:
The research was supported by SATREPS (JST and JICA) and AIST-FREA.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).
PY - 2022/12
Y1 - 2022/12
N2 - Development of geothermal power plants and local geothermal energy initiatives have lagged due to the social problems such as conflicts with stakeholders such as Onsen (Hot Spa) owners, despite the abundant geothermal resources. Study area was Tsuchiyu Onsen in Fukushima prefecture, Tohoku (Northeast) District, Japan, where the Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima Nuclear Accident occurred in 2011, and the reconstruction and local initiatives of geothermal energy were still unclear. Agent-based modeling is an effective methodology for modeling and analysis of opinion formation. Parameter estimation method was proposed to extract appropriate parameters from various factors through a Bayesian Network. The characteristics of stakeholders and communities that affected opinion formation in the survey area were successfully extracted. Here we show the sufficient methodology to quantify the characteristics of each person using survey data, and to extract the parameters of the agent by data-driven inverse analysis. By using this methodology, we could reproduce opinion diversity, which is a property of opinion formation in real communities. This result suggests that the model replicates the actual formation of opinion in Tsuchiyu, where the economy was boosted by the construction of a binary cycle power plant.
AB - Development of geothermal power plants and local geothermal energy initiatives have lagged due to the social problems such as conflicts with stakeholders such as Onsen (Hot Spa) owners, despite the abundant geothermal resources. Study area was Tsuchiyu Onsen in Fukushima prefecture, Tohoku (Northeast) District, Japan, where the Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima Nuclear Accident occurred in 2011, and the reconstruction and local initiatives of geothermal energy were still unclear. Agent-based modeling is an effective methodology for modeling and analysis of opinion formation. Parameter estimation method was proposed to extract appropriate parameters from various factors through a Bayesian Network. The characteristics of stakeholders and communities that affected opinion formation in the survey area were successfully extracted. Here we show the sufficient methodology to quantify the characteristics of each person using survey data, and to extract the parameters of the agent by data-driven inverse analysis. By using this methodology, we could reproduce opinion diversity, which is a property of opinion formation in real communities. This result suggests that the model replicates the actual formation of opinion in Tsuchiyu, where the economy was boosted by the construction of a binary cycle power plant.
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U2 - 10.1038/s41598-022-07272-7
DO - 10.1038/s41598-022-07272-7
M3 - Article
C2 - 35228592
AN - SCOPUS:85125576194
SN - 2045-2322
VL - 12
JO - Scientific Reports
JF - Scientific Reports
IS - 1
M1 - 3314
ER -