Are production managers' forecasts useful? Joint evaluation and robustness

Y. Tsuchiya

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


We jointly evaluate the two directional changes (increase/decrease and acceleration/deceleration) in monthly manufacturing production activity predicted by production managers using a new market-timing test. Besides determining that the forecasts are useful in predicting an increase/decrease and acceleration/deceleration in monthly production activity, joint evaluation of the forecast illustrates the advantage of the new test. Moreover, we find that the results are broadly robust to two data vintages and outlying observations.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1403-1406
Number of pages4
JournalApplied Economics Letters
Issue number15
Publication statusPublished - 2013
Externally publishedYes


  • business cycles
  • directional analysis
  • forecast evaluation
  • industry studies

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics


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