TY - JOUR
T1 - Assessing the effect of predicted climate change on slope stability in northern thailand
T2 - A case of doi pui
AU - Chaithong, Thapthai
AU - Soralump, Suttisak
AU - Pungsuwan, Damrong
AU - Komori, Daisuke
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© Int. J. of GEOMATE.
PY - 2017
Y1 - 2017
N2 - Landslide is a natural disaster which occurs very often in mountainous areas. Climate is an important determinant on the amount of moisture in the ground, which is a key to the stability of soil slope. Therefore, climate change due to the global warming may affect the intensity of rainfall and the evaporation in the future and influences situation of slope stability in a long time. The purpose of this study is to propose a method for assessing the effect of climate change on slope stability using general circulation model (GCM). A method for predicting climate change impact on slope stability is to link the antecedent precipitation index (API), hydrological model, obtained through downscaling GCM to critical antecedent precipitation model. The GCM is downscaled using a dynamical technique to derive regional climate models. Then a statistical correlation is used to adjust for the basis of the regional climate model. The GCM used in this study is the ECHAM4/OPYC3 model. The analysis found that the trend of susceptibility to slope failure depends on the pattern of simulated rainfall and the recession constant of the antecedent precipitation index.
AB - Landslide is a natural disaster which occurs very often in mountainous areas. Climate is an important determinant on the amount of moisture in the ground, which is a key to the stability of soil slope. Therefore, climate change due to the global warming may affect the intensity of rainfall and the evaporation in the future and influences situation of slope stability in a long time. The purpose of this study is to propose a method for assessing the effect of climate change on slope stability using general circulation model (GCM). A method for predicting climate change impact on slope stability is to link the antecedent precipitation index (API), hydrological model, obtained through downscaling GCM to critical antecedent precipitation model. The GCM is downscaled using a dynamical technique to derive regional climate models. Then a statistical correlation is used to adjust for the basis of the regional climate model. The GCM used in this study is the ECHAM4/OPYC3 model. The analysis found that the trend of susceptibility to slope failure depends on the pattern of simulated rainfall and the recession constant of the antecedent precipitation index.
KW - Antecedent precipitation
KW - Climate change
KW - General circulation model
KW - Slope stability
KW - Unsaturated soil behavior
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U2 - 10.21660/2017.38.209764
DO - 10.21660/2017.38.209764
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85020120594
SN - 2186-2982
VL - 13
SP - 38
EP - 48
JO - International Journal of GEOMATE
JF - International Journal of GEOMATE
IS - 38
ER -
