Assessment of risk of infection due to Cryptosporidium parvum in drinking water water

The risk of infection of Cryptosporidium via drinking water was assessed using Monte Carlo simulation with the field survey data of the Sagami River watershed. The levels of Cryptosporidium in this river were found to follow the lognormal distribution. From the counted data, the median levels of the Miyayama sampling point was estimated to be 5.7 oocysts per 100L. To calculate the annual risk of infection due to Cryptosporidium in drinking water, the Cryptosporidium level of Miyayama sampling point was used as the water source of the waterworks. The 95% percentile of the annual risk of infectionw as found to be 10^-2.60. If the daily risk was eliminated when the level of Cryptosporidium in treated water exceeded 1 oocyst per 20L, the 95% percentile of the annual risk was reduced by about 1 log. To reduce the 95% value of the annual risk lower than 10^-4, the risk of days with levels of Cryptosporidium in treated water exceeding 1 oocyst per 80L should be eliminated.