TY - JOUR
T1 - Changes in extremely heavy and light snow-cover winters due to global warming over high mountainous areas in central Japan
AU - Kawase, Hiroaki
AU - Yamazaki, Takeshi
AU - Sugimoto, Shiori
AU - Sasai, Takahiro
AU - Ito, Rui
AU - Hamada, Takashi
AU - Kuribayashi, Masatoshi
AU - Fujita, Mikiko
AU - Murata, Akihiko
AU - Nosaka, Masaya
AU - Sasaki, Hidetaka
N1 - Funding Information:
(MEXT), Japan. HK was partly supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 19H01377. The Earth Simulator was used in this study as the Earth Simulator Proposed Research Project of “Estimation of Spatial Patterns of Extremely Heavy Snowfall using High-resolution Regional Climate Ensemble Experiments” in JAMSTEC.
Funding Information:
This work was supported by the Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT) and the Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU) Programs of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan. HK was partly supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 19H01377. Acknowledgments Availability of data and material
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, The Author(s).
PY - 2020/12/1
Y1 - 2020/12/1
N2 - To investigate future changes in snow cover and snowfall over mountainous areas in central Japan, we conducted regional climate projections using a high-resolution non-hydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM) with 5 km and 1 km grid spacings. Boundary conditions are derived from the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) 20 km regional climate projections (d4PDF20). The d4PDF20 assumes two future climates when global mean surface air temperatures are approximately 2 K and 4 K warmer than in the preindustrial period. Experiments with 5 km grid spacing are conducted by NHRCM for 372 years in d4PDF20 in each climate. Experiments with 1 km grid spacing are performed focusing on 5 years with heavy, median, and light snow cover of mountainous areas in each climate. In the years with heavy snow cover in 2 K and 4 K warming climates, snowfall is enhanced from late December to February at more than 2000 m above sea level (mASL) in the northern parts of Japan’s Northern Alps, resulting in heavy snow cover comparable to that in the present climate. Heavy daily snowfall remarkably increases due to global warming in the years with heavy snow cover. At low elevations below 500 mASL, snowfall decreases in all ranges of snowfall intensity in the 4 K warming climate, while the frequency of heavy daily snowfall increases in the 2 K warming climate. Precipitation is enhanced around the Japan-Sea Polar-airmass Convergence Zone and the mountainous area facing the Sea of Japan, resulting in strengthened heavy snowfall at high elevations where the winter mean temperature is approximately − 10 °C in the present climate. On the other hand, remarkable reductions in snow cover and snowfall are projected in years with light snow cover. Our results indicate that global warming causes heavy and light mid-winter snowfalls at high elevations of Japan’s Northern Alps that are more extreme than those in the present climate. Graphical abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.]
AB - To investigate future changes in snow cover and snowfall over mountainous areas in central Japan, we conducted regional climate projections using a high-resolution non-hydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM) with 5 km and 1 km grid spacings. Boundary conditions are derived from the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) 20 km regional climate projections (d4PDF20). The d4PDF20 assumes two future climates when global mean surface air temperatures are approximately 2 K and 4 K warmer than in the preindustrial period. Experiments with 5 km grid spacing are conducted by NHRCM for 372 years in d4PDF20 in each climate. Experiments with 1 km grid spacing are performed focusing on 5 years with heavy, median, and light snow cover of mountainous areas in each climate. In the years with heavy snow cover in 2 K and 4 K warming climates, snowfall is enhanced from late December to February at more than 2000 m above sea level (mASL) in the northern parts of Japan’s Northern Alps, resulting in heavy snow cover comparable to that in the present climate. Heavy daily snowfall remarkably increases due to global warming in the years with heavy snow cover. At low elevations below 500 mASL, snowfall decreases in all ranges of snowfall intensity in the 4 K warming climate, while the frequency of heavy daily snowfall increases in the 2 K warming climate. Precipitation is enhanced around the Japan-Sea Polar-airmass Convergence Zone and the mountainous area facing the Sea of Japan, resulting in strengthened heavy snowfall at high elevations where the winter mean temperature is approximately − 10 °C in the present climate. On the other hand, remarkable reductions in snow cover and snowfall are projected in years with light snow cover. Our results indicate that global warming causes heavy and light mid-winter snowfalls at high elevations of Japan’s Northern Alps that are more extreme than those in the present climate. Graphical abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.]
KW - Dynamical downscaling
KW - Global warming
KW - Heavy snowfall
KW - Japan’s Northern Alps
KW - Mountainous snow cover
KW - Regional climate modeling
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85081627852&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85081627852&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1186/s40645-020-0322-x
DO - 10.1186/s40645-020-0322-x
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85081627852
SN - 2197-4284
VL - 7
JO - Progress in Earth and Planetary Science
JF - Progress in Earth and Planetary Science
IS - 1
M1 - 10
ER -
