Commuting quantum circuits with few outputs are unlikely to be classically simulatable

We study the classical simulatability of commuting quantum circuits with n input qubits and O(log n) output qubits, where a quantum circuit is classically simulatable if its output probability distribution can be sampled up to an exponentially small additive error in classical polynomial time. Our main result is that there exists a commuting quantum circuit that is not classically simulatable unless the polynomial hierarchy collapses to the third level. This is the first formal evidence that a commuting quantum circuit is not classically simulatable even when the number of output qubits is exponentially small. Then, we consider a generalized version of the circuit and clarify the condition under which it is classically simulatable. We apply these results to examining the ability of IQP circuits to implement fundamental operations, and to examining the classical simulatability of slightly extended Clifford circuits.