TY - JOUR
T1 - Distributed probability of slope failure in Thailand under climate change
AU - Komori, Daisuke
AU - Rangsiwanichpong, Prem
AU - Inoue, Naotatsu
AU - Ono, Keisuke
AU - Watanabe, Satoshi
AU - Kazama, So
N1 - Funding Information:
This study was supported through the Advancing Co-design of Integrated Strategies with Adaptation to Climate Change (ADAP-T) project of JST/JICA, SATREPS.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 The Authors
PY - 2018
Y1 - 2018
N2 - Landslides are more widespread compared to any other geological hazards in Thailand. The steep slope and high elevation areas have more potential for landslide hazards. However, weather extremes, particularly extreme rainfall, play a major role in the occurrence of landslides in Thailand. The objective of the present study is to analyze the changes in the probability of landslide occurrences in Thailand due to climate change. For this purpose, probabilistic landslide hazard maps for extreme rainfall values for 5-, 10-, 50-, and 100-year return periods are developed for historical and future climatic conditions, derived from 10 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, namely, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results reveal that the 5-year return period extreme rainfall amount will reach 200 mm/month in the eastern and southern provinces for RCP 4.5 and the northwestern, eastern, and southern provinces for RCP 8.5. The increase in extreme rainfall will cause a sharp increase in the landslide probability in Thailand, except in low altitude regions. The probability of 100-year return period landslide will increase by 90% in 40% and 80% of the areas in Thailand under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. It is expected that the landslide hazard maps developed in this study will help policy makers take necessary measures to mitigate increasing landslide events due to climate change.
AB - Landslides are more widespread compared to any other geological hazards in Thailand. The steep slope and high elevation areas have more potential for landslide hazards. However, weather extremes, particularly extreme rainfall, play a major role in the occurrence of landslides in Thailand. The objective of the present study is to analyze the changes in the probability of landslide occurrences in Thailand due to climate change. For this purpose, probabilistic landslide hazard maps for extreme rainfall values for 5-, 10-, 50-, and 100-year return periods are developed for historical and future climatic conditions, derived from 10 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, namely, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results reveal that the 5-year return period extreme rainfall amount will reach 200 mm/month in the eastern and southern provinces for RCP 4.5 and the northwestern, eastern, and southern provinces for RCP 8.5. The increase in extreme rainfall will cause a sharp increase in the landslide probability in Thailand, except in low altitude regions. The probability of 100-year return period landslide will increase by 90% in 40% and 80% of the areas in Thailand under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. It is expected that the landslide hazard maps developed in this study will help policy makers take necessary measures to mitigate increasing landslide events due to climate change.
KW - Climate scenarios
KW - Extreme rainfall
KW - Global circulation models
KW - Landslide
KW - Thailand
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U2 - 10.1016/j.crm.2018.03.002
DO - 10.1016/j.crm.2018.03.002
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85044099221
SN - 2212-0963
VL - 20
SP - 126
EP - 137
JO - Climate Risk Management
JF - Climate Risk Management
ER -
