TY - GEN
T1 - Evaluation of the travel time reliability of an urban road network; an evolutionary game theory and MCMC approach
AU - Shittaka, Yuki
AU - Nagae, Takeshi
PY - 2018/1/1
Y1 - 2018/1/1
N2 - This paper proposes a novel methodology for evaluating the travel time reliability of an urban road network using latest advances in the evolutionary game theory and MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo). Our proposed method has the following notable features: (i) it obtains a stationary distribution of traffic flow patterns which stems from a stochastic day-to-day dynamics of a population with rational users; (ii) this distribution is consistent with the traditional SUE (stochastic user equilibrium) in terms of traffic flow; and (iii) it can estimate the 95 percentile of travel time of each OD pair for a practical size network. In this paper, we provide a numerical example using Sioux-Falls network.
AB - This paper proposes a novel methodology for evaluating the travel time reliability of an urban road network using latest advances in the evolutionary game theory and MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo). Our proposed method has the following notable features: (i) it obtains a stationary distribution of traffic flow patterns which stems from a stochastic day-to-day dynamics of a population with rational users; (ii) this distribution is consistent with the traditional SUE (stochastic user equilibrium) in terms of traffic flow; and (iii) it can estimate the 95 percentile of travel time of each OD pair for a practical size network. In this paper, we provide a numerical example using Sioux-Falls network.
KW - Evolutionary game theory
KW - MCMC
KW - Stochastic day-to-day dynamics
KW - Stochastic user equilibrium
KW - Travel time reliability
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85050612203&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85050612203&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85050612203
T3 - Proceedings of the 21st International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies, HKSTS 2016 - Smart Transportation
SP - 495
EP - 501
BT - Proceedings of the 21st International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies, HKSTS 2016 - Smart Transportation
A2 - Wong, Allan Wing Gun
A2 - Wong, Simon Ho Fai
A2 - Leung, Gordon Lai Ming
PB - Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies Limited
T2 - 21st International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies: Smart Transportation, HKSTS 2016
Y2 - 10 December 2016 through 12 December 2016
ER -