Forecast for demand and supply of steel scrap in Korea

1.91 million t of steel scrap was exported from Japan to Korea in 2003, which accounted for more than 30% of the total steel scrap exported to other countries from Japan. Change in steel scrap demand in Korea in the future will make a great influence on the amount of Japan's steel scrap domestic consumption and export. In this work, quantitative data about the steel production, steel scrap demand and consumption during 1977-2003 in Korea were collected to analyze the amounts of inhouse, industrial and obsolete scrap generation, and total steel accumulation in Korea. Then, the steel scrap demand in Korea in the future was estimated. The total accumulation of steel in Korea was estimated as 380 million t in 2003 and 548 million t in 2010, respectively. The amount of obsolete scrap generation in Korea was 7.1 million t in 1996 and 9.0 million t in 2003, which was about 3.0% and 2.4% of the total steel accumulation in each year. Supposing that the amount of crude steel production, scrap consumption percentages in B.O.F and E.A.F will be stable, the obsolete scrap generation in Korea in 2010 were estimated as 13-17 million t. This significant increase in obsolete scrap generation in Korea could exceed the current amount of the scrap import. So, self-sufficiency of steel scrap could be achieved in around 2010 in Korea.