Framework for life-cycle tsunami risk assessment considering sea-level rise effects due to climate change

The colossal impact of tsunamis has been responsible for a significant loss to coastal infrastructure world-wide. However, due to the sea-level rise effects, the life-cycle risk assessment associated with the cumulative loss becomes intractable since hazards due to tsunami are time-dependent. A more accurate life-cycle tsunami risk assessment is needed to enhance the disaster preparedness of coastal communities. This paper presents a framework for life-cycle risk assessment of coastal residential buildings subjected to tsunami under sea-level rise effects. Earthquake occurrences are predicted probabilistically using a Poisson process based on historical data. Time-variant sea-level rise hazard assessment is carried out based on various climate models considering the uncertainties of emission scenarios. Monte Carlo simulation-based tsunami hazard assessment is performed to estimate the tsunami hazard curves considering sea-level rise effects. With the fragility curve of building structures developed from historical tsunami damage data, the tsunami risk of coastal building is estimated based on tsunami hazard considering sea-level rise effects, fragility curve, and the unit loss of individual buildings. An illustrative example is presented by applying the proposed framework to several municipalities in Kochi Prefecture of Japan. The effects of sea-level rise and earthquake occurrence on the life-cycle risk are discussed.