Future increase of supertyphoon intensity associated with climate change

Kazuhisa Tsuboki, Mayumi K. Yoshioka, Taro Shinoda, Masaya Kato, Sachie Kanada, Akio Kitoh

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

71 Citations (Scopus)


Increases of tropical cyclone intensity with global warming have been demonstrated by historical data studies and theory. This raises great concern regarding future changes in typhoon intensity. The present study addressed the problem to what extent supertyphoons will become intense in the global warming climate of the late 21st century. Very high resolution downscale experiments using a cloud-resolving model without convective parameterizations were performed for the 30 most intense typhoons obtained from the 20 km mesh global simulation of a warmer climate. Twelve supertyphoons occurred in the downscale experiments, and the most intense supertyphoon attained a central pressure of 857 hPa and a wind speed of 88 m s-1. The maximum intensity of the supertyphoon was little affected by uncertainties that arise from experimental settings. This study indicates that the most intense future supertyphoon could attain wind speeds of 85-90 m s-1 and minimum central pressures of 860 hPa.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)646-652
Number of pages7
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 2015 Jan 28


  • climate change
  • cloud-resolving model
  • downscale simulation experiment
  • global warming
  • supertyphoon
  • typhoon maximum intensity

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geophysics
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)


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