Predictive power of home blood pressure indices at baseline and during follow-up in hypertensive patients: HOMED-BP study

We compared the predictive power for a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) of four home blood pressure (BP) indices (systolic BP, diastolic BP, mean BP, and pulse pressure (PP)) obtained at baseline before treatment and during the on-treatment follow-up period in 3147 patients with essential hypertension (women: 50.1%, mean age: 59.5 years). Associations between MACE and each index were determined using Cox proportional hazard models and the likelihood ratio (LR) test. During a median follow-up of 5.4 years, 46 patients experienced MACE, which was a composite of cardiovascular death, non-fatal stroke, and non-fatal myocardial infarction. The LR test showed that systolic, diastolic, and mean BP during follow-up was more closely associated with cardiovascular risk than the corresponding indices at baseline (LR χ ² for baseline versus follow-up: systolic BP, (6.0, P = 0.014) versus (11.3, P = 0.0008); diastolic BP, (0.4, P = 0.53) versus (12.4, P = 0.0004); mean BP, (3.2, P = 0.074) versus (15.0, P = 0.0001)), whereas neither PP at baseline nor that during follow-up was significantly associated with MACE risk. Among home BP indices during follow-up, mean BP further improved prediction models in which systolic or diastolic BP was already included (P ≤ 0.042), but neither systolic nor diastolic BP improved models with mean BP (P = 0.80). In addition to home systolic and diastolic BP, mean BP during follow-up period provides essential information in predicting future cardiovascular diseases, whereas its utilization should be further assessed by an intervention trial targeting mean BP levels.