Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis and risk to coastal populations in Thailand

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The study of tsunami hazards in Thailand has been an ongoing topic of research. However, the hazards from tsunami sources based on probabilistic study and population risk are still unclear. In this study, potential tsunami sources along rupture zones were selected. A series of far-field tsunami simulations were performed with scaled fault parameters based on fault lengths from 100-600 km. The results show that within a few centuries, the maximum tsunami height could be 2-5 m at the west coast and less than 2 m at the east coast. The potential tsunami exposure (PTE) of populations in an estimated inundation zone was calculated using global population data in relation to tsunami height. The results show that much attention should be paid to fault ruptures longer than 300 km (≈ 8.5 moment magnitude, M w) that originate from 4°-6°N and 14°-17°N for the Sumatra subduction zone and the Manila trench, respectively. A quarter of a million people are at risk of exposure to a maximum 9 m tsunami height after 100 min of the arrival of the first wave at the Andaman coast. One million people near the Gulf of Thailand are at risk of a tsunami height less than 3 m after 9 hr.

Original languageEnglish
Article number1250011
JournalJournal of Earthquake and Tsunami
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 2012 Jun


  • coastal population risk
  • Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis
  • tsunami and earthquake return period
  • tsunami in Thailand


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