TY - JOUR
T1 - Quantitative assessment of epistemic uncertainties in tsunami hazard effects on building risk assessments
AU - Fukutani, Yo
AU - Suppasri, Anawat
AU - Imamura, Fumihiko
N1 - Funding Information:
This research was supported by Specific Project Research from the International Research Institute of Disaster Science (IRIDeS) at Tohoku University. This research was also supported by funding from Tokio Marine and Nichido Fire Insurance Co. Ltd. through the IRIDeS. The authors also greatly appreciate the questions and valuable comments of the anonymous reviewers that helped improve the manuscript.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
PY - 2018/1/10
Y1 - 2018/1/10
N2 - Based on the definition of tsunami risk, we quantitatively evaluated the annual expected tsunami loss ratio (Tsunami Risk Indeand clarified the quantitative effects of epistemic uncertainties in tsunami hazard assessments on the tsunami risk of buildings by combining probabilistic information regarding tsunami inundation depths at target points and tsunami fragility assessments of buildings. For the risk assessment, we targeted buildings with four different structures (reinforced concrete, steel, brick, woolocated in three different areas (Soma, Sendai, Kesennuma). In conclusion, we demonstrated that the expected tsunami risk could vary by approximately two orders of magnitude when considering tsunami hazard uncertainties between the 95th percentile and the 5th percentile. In addition, we quantitatively clarified the fact that we cannot properly understand the tsunami risk by evaluating the tsunami fragility alone. For example, the analysis results indicate that the tsunami risk of a wood building located in Kesennuma is lower than that of a reinforced concrete building located in either Soma or Sendai.
AB - Based on the definition of tsunami risk, we quantitatively evaluated the annual expected tsunami loss ratio (Tsunami Risk Indeand clarified the quantitative effects of epistemic uncertainties in tsunami hazard assessments on the tsunami risk of buildings by combining probabilistic information regarding tsunami inundation depths at target points and tsunami fragility assessments of buildings. For the risk assessment, we targeted buildings with four different structures (reinforced concrete, steel, brick, woolocated in three different areas (Soma, Sendai, Kesennuma). In conclusion, we demonstrated that the expected tsunami risk could vary by approximately two orders of magnitude when considering tsunami hazard uncertainties between the 95th percentile and the 5th percentile. In addition, we quantitatively clarified the fact that we cannot properly understand the tsunami risk by evaluating the tsunami fragility alone. For example, the analysis results indicate that the tsunami risk of a wood building located in Kesennuma is lower than that of a reinforced concrete building located in either Soma or Sendai.
KW - Quantitative effect
KW - Risk quantification
KW - Tsunami hazard uncertainty
KW - Tsunami risk
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U2 - 10.3390/geosciences8010017
DO - 10.3390/geosciences8010017
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85040967981
SN - 2076-3263
VL - 8
JO - Geosciences (Switzerland)
JF - Geosciences (Switzerland)
IS - 1
M1 - 17
ER -