Resource logistics analysis on phosphorus and its applications for science, technology and innovation (STI) policy

Phosphorus is an important strategic resource for agricultural food production and the chemical industry. Natural phosphate ore is traded worldwide as a raw material for fertilizers; however, owing to the growing demand for fertilizers worldwide, its deposits could deplete within the next century. The average price of the ore in 2008 was approximately twice that in 2007. Considering the limited supplies of phosphorus, it is important to evaluate the quantity and availability of currently untapped phosphorus resources. Thus, we developed the Integrated Phosphorus Cycle Input Output (IPCIO) model to estimate the phosphorus requirements for economic activities and to evaluate the recycling effects of reutilizing currently untapped phosphorus resources. The model’s accounting framework includes four natural resources, 25 phosphorus-related commodities in physical terms, and 389 intermediate sectors of the Japanese economy for 2005.