Risk assessment for optimum low-voltage distribution facilities constructed by using genetic algorithms

Influences of uncertainty in load growth rate and interest rate on total cost of low-voltage distribution facilities was investigated. We assumed that the total cost was composed of initial construction cost, improvement cost and cost of power loss. We also assumed that the distribution facilities were operated for 30 years. Genetic algorithms were used to determine how to construct a cost-effective distribution facilities that did not compromise power quality. Two investment methods were compared. One was that the utility cut down the initial construction cost and improves the initial facilities along with the load growth. The other was that the utility bears the large initial cost without the improvement cost. It was found that the lower cost method depends on the load growth rate and interest rate. It was also found that the influence of uncertainty in load growth rate increases with an increase in the differential between actual load growth rate and expected one.