Scenario analysis on the generation of end-of-life hybrid vehicle in developing countries—focusing on the exported secondhand hybrid vehicle from Japan to Mongolia

In recent years, Next-Generation Vehicles, especially Hybrid Vehicles (HV) are increasing rapidly in advanced countries. In fact, not only advanced countries but also some developing countries also own a large quantity of HV by importing secondhand HV from advanced countries. For instance, Mongolia is importing a huge amount of secondhand HV from Japan every year. On the other hand, there will be a huge amount of waste HV in Mongolia that needs to be recycled properly soon, and yet, this problem has been neglected and the number of waste HVs in Mongolia is still unknown. The purpose of this research is to propose a method to predict the End-of-Life HV number in Mongolia. This research finds that the Japanese vehicle deregistration rate can represent vehicles’ durability and can be used to estimate End-of-Life HV number in Mongolia. The result shows that there will be a huge amount of End-of-Life HV as well as Nickel-Metal Hydride (NiMH) batteries generated in Mongolia from now on, even more than in Japan, which is the largest HV market. It is urgent for the Mongolian government to build a proper End-of-Life HV recycling system now, and international cooperation on resource circulation is also expected.