TY - GEN
T1 - Sensitivity analysis of distributed rainfall-runoff models
AU - Soria, Freddy
AU - Kazama, So
AU - Sawamoto, Masaki
PY - 2009
Y1 - 2009
N2 - Two Monte Carlo based methods were applied in a mountainous watershed. The methods covered were the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation Technique (GLUE) and the variance based Sobol technique. The former assess the likelihood of a model to describe a system recognizing that model and data are subject to uncertainty; the latter statistically evaluates the uncertainty in the estimation of model parameter values. Both are commonly used in model predictive uncertainty. This paper analyzed their applicability to distributed rainfall-runoff schemes. The methods were found to be complimentary: GLUE technique contributed the criteria for rejection/acceptance of behavioral models, and Sobol indices described the relative variance contribution of model parameters on total discharge. Bayesian updating within GLUE, and the spatial distribution of sensitivity indices were not covered, and can be the key to extend the analysis into fully distributed schemes.
AB - Two Monte Carlo based methods were applied in a mountainous watershed. The methods covered were the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation Technique (GLUE) and the variance based Sobol technique. The former assess the likelihood of a model to describe a system recognizing that model and data are subject to uncertainty; the latter statistically evaluates the uncertainty in the estimation of model parameter values. Both are commonly used in model predictive uncertainty. This paper analyzed their applicability to distributed rainfall-runoff schemes. The methods were found to be complimentary: GLUE technique contributed the criteria for rejection/acceptance of behavioral models, and Sobol indices described the relative variance contribution of model parameters on total discharge. Bayesian updating within GLUE, and the spatial distribution of sensitivity indices were not covered, and can be the key to extend the analysis into fully distributed schemes.
KW - Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation
KW - Monte Carlo experiments
KW - Variance based methods
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84903477486&partnerID=8YFLogxK
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U2 - 10.1007/978-3-540-89465-0_5
DO - 10.1007/978-3-540-89465-0_5
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84903477486
SN - 9783540894643
T3 - Advances in Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering - Proceedings of 16th IAHR-APD Congress and 3rd Symposium of IAHR-ISHS
SP - 24
EP - 28
BT - Advances in Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering - Proceedings of 16th IAHR-APD Congress and 3rd Symposium of IAHR-ISHS
PB - Springer Berlin Heidelberg
T2 - 16th Congress of Asia and Pacific Division of International Association of Hydraulic Engineering and Research, APD 2008 and the 3rd IAHR International Symposium on Hydraulic Structures, ISHS 2008
Y2 - 20 October 2008 through 23 October 2008
ER -