TY - JOUR
T1 - Spatial analysis of the geographical distribution of thyroid cancer cases from the first-round thyroid ultrasound examination in Fukushima Prefecture
AU - Nakaya, Tomoki
AU - Takahashi, Kunihiko
AU - Takahashi, Hideto
AU - Yasumura, Seiji
AU - Ohira, Tetsuya
AU - Ohto, Hitoshi
AU - Ohtsuru, Akira
AU - Midorikawa, Sanae
AU - Suzuki, Shinichi
AU - Shimura, Hiroki
AU - Yamashita, Shunichi
AU - Tanigawa, Koichi
AU - Kamiya, Kenji
N1 - Funding Information:
We appreciate the excellent cooperation of the residents of Fukushima Prefecture in the Fukushima Health Management Survey. This current study was conducted as parts of the project planned in the Fukushima Health Management Survey which was supported by the National Health Fund for Children and Adults Affected by the Nuclear Incident. The findings and conclusions of this article are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not represent the official views of the Fukushima Prefecture government.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2018, The Author(s).
PY - 2018/12/1
Y1 - 2018/12/1
N2 - Following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) accident on 11 March 2011, there have been concerns regarding the health impacts of the ensuing radioactive environmental contamination, which was spatially heterogeneous. This study aimed to assess the geographical variability of thyroid cancer prevalence among children and adolescents in Fukushima Prefecture. We computed the sex- and age-standardised prevalence ratio using 115 diagnosed or suspected thyroid cancer cases among approximately 300,000 examinees at the first-round ultrasound examination during 2011–2015 from 59 municipalities in the prefecture, under the Fukushima Health Management Survey. We applied flexibly shaped spatial scan statistics and the maximised excess events test on the dataset to detect locally anomalous high-prevalence regions. We also conducted Poisson regression with selected regional indicators. Furthermore, approximately 200 examinees showed positive ultrasound examination results but did not undergo confirmatory testing; thus, we employed simulation-based sensitivity tests to evaluate the possible effect of such undiagnosed cases in the statistical analysis. In conclusion, this study found no significant spatial anomalies/clusters or geographic trends of thyroid cancer prevalence among the ultrasound examinees, indicating that the thyroid cancer cases detected are unlikely to be attributable to regional factors, including radiation exposure resulting from the FNPP accident.
AB - Following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) accident on 11 March 2011, there have been concerns regarding the health impacts of the ensuing radioactive environmental contamination, which was spatially heterogeneous. This study aimed to assess the geographical variability of thyroid cancer prevalence among children and adolescents in Fukushima Prefecture. We computed the sex- and age-standardised prevalence ratio using 115 diagnosed or suspected thyroid cancer cases among approximately 300,000 examinees at the first-round ultrasound examination during 2011–2015 from 59 municipalities in the prefecture, under the Fukushima Health Management Survey. We applied flexibly shaped spatial scan statistics and the maximised excess events test on the dataset to detect locally anomalous high-prevalence regions. We also conducted Poisson regression with selected regional indicators. Furthermore, approximately 200 examinees showed positive ultrasound examination results but did not undergo confirmatory testing; thus, we employed simulation-based sensitivity tests to evaluate the possible effect of such undiagnosed cases in the statistical analysis. In conclusion, this study found no significant spatial anomalies/clusters or geographic trends of thyroid cancer prevalence among the ultrasound examinees, indicating that the thyroid cancer cases detected are unlikely to be attributable to regional factors, including radiation exposure resulting from the FNPP accident.
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U2 - 10.1038/s41598-018-35971-7
DO - 10.1038/s41598-018-35971-7
M3 - Article
C2 - 30518765
AN - SCOPUS:85057745878
SN - 2045-2322
VL - 8
JO - Scientific Reports
JF - Scientific Reports
IS - 1
M1 - 17661
ER -
