Spatial pattern differences in land use between mountainous, agricultural and city districts in Ibaraki prefecture, Japan

A comparison of land use in the 1990s between the northern, central and southern regions of Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan, was performed based on aerial photograph analysis. It was clarified that the northern region was a mountainous agricultural area whereas the southern region was a city area. The central region had a land use characteristic intermediate or somewhat close to that of the northern region. Compared with the vegetation map that was published by the local government of Ibaraki Prefecture in 1980, in the northern region the area of deciduous forest increased and the cultivated area decreased in the 1990s. In the central region, a tendency similar to that of the northern region was found between the 1980s and 1990s. On the other hand, in the southern region the area of deciduous forest had markedly decreased and the city area had greatly increased since 1980. In this region, changes not only in area but also area heterogeneity were found between the 1980s and 1990s, that is, large city area blocks had developed since the 1980s, and deciduous forest tended to have become more fragmented. These facts reveal the marked effect of changes in social and industrial (including agricultural) structure between the 1980s and 1990s on land use in these regions of Ibaraki Prefecture. To analyze land use in these regions, we used the beta-binomial distribution model. The present results indicate that this model is useful for analyzing substantial spatial and temporal changes in land use.