Spatio-temporal modelling of the HIV epidemic in Japan based on the national HIV/AIDS surveillance

Tomoki Nakaya, Katsumi Nakase, Ken Osaka

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

18 Citations (Scopus)


In this paper, we develop a multiregion epidemic model in order to provide the basic information on local HIV epidemic states in Japan. By considering the previous efforts of national epidemic projections in Japan, we statistically calibrate a model by employing an estimation method that allows the inclusion of geographically varying parameters. Using this model, we present a geographical projection of local epidemics until 2015 by examining geographical variations in future epidemic growth and spatial relationships in HIV transmission. We also discuss the implications of planning preventive measures and improvement in the Japanese HIV/AIDS surveillance system based on analytical results.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)313-336
Number of pages24
JournalJournal of Geographical Systems
Issue number3-4
Publication statusPublished - 2005 Dec 1
Externally publishedYes


  • Epidemic model
  • GWR
  • HIV/AIDS surveillance
  • Japan
  • Spatial diffusion

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Earth-Surface Processes


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