Spatio-temporal modelling of the HIV epidemic in Japan based on the national HIV/AIDS surveillance

Tomoki Nakaya; Katsumi Nakase; Ken Osaka

doi:10.1007/s10109-005-0008-3

Spatio-temporal modelling of the HIV epidemic in Japan based on the national HIV/AIDS surveillance

Tomoki Nakaya, Katsumi Nakase, Ken Osaka

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

18 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a multiregion epidemic model in order to provide the basic information on local HIV epidemic states in Japan. By considering the previous efforts of national epidemic projections in Japan, we statistically calibrate a model by employing an estimation method that allows the inclusion of geographically varying parameters. Using this model, we present a geographical projection of local epidemics until 2015 by examining geographical variations in future epidemic growth and spatial relationships in HIV transmission. We also discuss the implications of planning preventive measures and improvement in the Japanese HIV/AIDS surveillance system based on analytical results.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	313-336
Number of pages	24
Journal	Journal of Geographical Systems
Volume	7
Issue number	3-4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-005-0008-3
Publication status	Published - 2005 Dec 1
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Epidemic model
GWR
HIV/AIDS surveillance
Japan
Spatial diffusion

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Geography, Planning and Development
Earth-Surface Processes

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1007/s10109-005-0008-3

Cite this

@article{d4ae46a7ff2a4c4babace18c5996844b,

title = "Spatio-temporal modelling of the HIV epidemic in Japan based on the national HIV/AIDS surveillance",

abstract = "In this paper, we develop a multiregion epidemic model in order to provide the basic information on local HIV epidemic states in Japan. By considering the previous efforts of national epidemic projections in Japan, we statistically calibrate a model by employing an estimation method that allows the inclusion of geographically varying parameters. Using this model, we present a geographical projection of local epidemics until 2015 by examining geographical variations in future epidemic growth and spatial relationships in HIV transmission. We also discuss the implications of planning preventive measures and improvement in the Japanese HIV/AIDS surveillance system based on analytical results.",

keywords = "Epidemic model, GWR, HIV/AIDS surveillance, Japan, Spatial diffusion",

author = "Tomoki Nakaya and Katsumi Nakase and Ken Osaka",

year = "2005",

month = dec,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1007/s10109-005-0008-3",

language = "English",

volume = "7",

pages = "313--336",

journal = "Journal of Geographical Systems",

issn = "1435-5930",

publisher = "Springer Verlag",

number = "3-4",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Spatio-temporal modelling of the HIV epidemic in Japan based on the national HIV/AIDS surveillance

AU - Nakaya, Tomoki

AU - Nakase, Katsumi

AU - Osaka, Ken

PY - 2005/12/1

Y1 - 2005/12/1

N2 - In this paper, we develop a multiregion epidemic model in order to provide the basic information on local HIV epidemic states in Japan. By considering the previous efforts of national epidemic projections in Japan, we statistically calibrate a model by employing an estimation method that allows the inclusion of geographically varying parameters. Using this model, we present a geographical projection of local epidemics until 2015 by examining geographical variations in future epidemic growth and spatial relationships in HIV transmission. We also discuss the implications of planning preventive measures and improvement in the Japanese HIV/AIDS surveillance system based on analytical results.

AB - In this paper, we develop a multiregion epidemic model in order to provide the basic information on local HIV epidemic states in Japan. By considering the previous efforts of national epidemic projections in Japan, we statistically calibrate a model by employing an estimation method that allows the inclusion of geographically varying parameters. Using this model, we present a geographical projection of local epidemics until 2015 by examining geographical variations in future epidemic growth and spatial relationships in HIV transmission. We also discuss the implications of planning preventive measures and improvement in the Japanese HIV/AIDS surveillance system based on analytical results.

KW - Epidemic model

KW - GWR

KW - HIV/AIDS surveillance

KW - Japan

KW - Spatial diffusion

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=33644768192&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=33644768192&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s10109-005-0008-3

DO - 10.1007/s10109-005-0008-3

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:33644768192

SN - 1435-5930

VL - 7

SP - 313

EP - 336

JO - Journal of Geographical Systems

JF - Journal of Geographical Systems

IS - 3-4

ER -

Spatio-temporal modelling of the HIV epidemic in Japan based on the national HIV/AIDS surveillance

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this