Time series analysis of gastric acid secretion over a 20-year period in normal Japanese men

Background: The gastric acid secretion level is an important determinant for the manifestation of the gastroesophageal reflux disease spectrum, finally leading to the development of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Although the incidence of EAC has remained low in Asia, understanding the recent trend in gastric acid secretion should be helpful in estimating future incidences of EAC in that area. We investigated the latest chronological change (1995–2014) in gastric acid secretion in normal Japanese patients. Methods: A total of 307 asymptomatic Japanese men who attended the clinic for annual endoscopic checkups from 1995 to 2014 were enrolled in this analysis. Gastrin-stimulated gastric acid secretion was estimated with the endoscopic gastrin test. The association between gastric acid secretion and chronological period was assessed with a multivariate linear regression analysis. Results: Overall gastric acid secretion gradually increased over the 20-year period in the entire cohort in the unadjusted analysis (p < 0.05). However, the apparent increase was largely related to the relative decreasing rate of H. pylori infection, which profoundly inhibited gastric acid secretion. Gastric acid secretion did not change over the 20-year period in H. pylori-negative subjects, and it showed only a mild increase during this period in H. pylori-positive subjects. Conclusions: Considering that gastric acid secretion remained unchanged in H. pylori-negative Japanese men over a 20-year period at a level much lower than that in Occidental subjects, upper gastrointestinal disease profiles in the Japanese population will differ from those in Western countries in the post-H. pylori era.