TY - GEN
T1 - Utilizing risk analysis and scenario planning for technology roadmapping
T2 - Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology - Technology Management in the Energy-Smart World, PICMET'11
AU - Kajikawa, Yuya
AU - Kikuchi, Yasunori
AU - Fukushima, Yasuhiro
AU - Koyama, Michihisa
PY - 2011/10/5
Y1 - 2011/10/5
N2 - Technology roadmap is emerging as an indispensable management tool in the modern society, because it can be used to direct future paths of advancing technologies and to foster understandings among stakeholders including scientists, engineers, R&D managers, and policy makers. Current technology roadmaps are limited in its functions, because uncertainties embedded in the presented pathways and major consequences in the future realized by following the roadmap are often not well presented. In this paper, a new approach in technology roadmapping is proposed. The new approach includes identification of technological, economic, environmental and social risks and constraints and apply scenario planning concept. A case study in Japanese energy sector was conducted. Inputs from more than 40 experts in energy sector were collected and assessed to synthesize an integrated perspective on energy technologies, consistently describe inherent risks, and quantify expected outcomes. Findings obtained in the execution of this case study are organized as useful guidelines to construct a useful, reliable, and informative technology roadmap.
AB - Technology roadmap is emerging as an indispensable management tool in the modern society, because it can be used to direct future paths of advancing technologies and to foster understandings among stakeholders including scientists, engineers, R&D managers, and policy makers. Current technology roadmaps are limited in its functions, because uncertainties embedded in the presented pathways and major consequences in the future realized by following the roadmap are often not well presented. In this paper, a new approach in technology roadmapping is proposed. The new approach includes identification of technological, economic, environmental and social risks and constraints and apply scenario planning concept. A case study in Japanese energy sector was conducted. Inputs from more than 40 experts in energy sector were collected and assessed to synthesize an integrated perspective on energy technologies, consistently describe inherent risks, and quantify expected outcomes. Findings obtained in the execution of this case study are organized as useful guidelines to construct a useful, reliable, and informative technology roadmap.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=80053371835&partnerID=8YFLogxK
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M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:80053371835
SN - 1890843245
SN - 9781890843243
T3 - PICMET: Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology, Proceedings
BT - PICMET'11 - Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology, Proceedings - Technology Management in the Energy-Smart World
Y2 - 31 July 2011 through 4 August 2011
ER -