Evaluation of preoperative prognostic factors in patients with resectable invasive intraductal papillary mucinous carcinoma

Background: Upfront surgery is the standard treatment for resectable invasive intraductal papillary mucinous carcinoma; however, recurrence is common. Therefore, we investigated the recurrence, surgical outcome, and preoperative prognostic factors for recurrence in patients with resectable invasive intraductal papillary mucinous carcinoma. Methods: We analyzed 111 patients who underwent upfront surgery for resectable invasive intraductal papillary mucinous carcinoma between 2000 and 2017 and evaluated the relationship among clinicopathologic factors, recurrence, and outcomes. Results: The 5-year recurrence-free survival and disease-specific survival rates were 61% and 74%, respectively. The median time to recurrence was 1.1 years. In multivariate analysis, carbohydrate antigen 19-9 ≥83 U/mL (hazard ratio: 2.8 and 3.1), tumor size ≥2.2 cm (hazard ratio: 3.5 and 4.7), and pathologic tubular adenocarcinoma grade 2 (hazard ratio: 3.1 and 5.2) were risk factors for a shorter recurrence-free survival and disease-specific survival, respectively. Lymph node metastasis (hazard ratio: 3.9) was also a risk factor for a shorter disease-specific survival. When examining outcomes according to preoperatively measurable factors (carbohydrate antigen 19-9 ≥83 U/mL and tumor size ≥2.2 cm), the 5-year recurrence rates in patients with none (n = 47), 1 (n = 46), and both (n = 18) risk factors were 17%, 48%, and 78%, respectively. Five-year disease-specific survival rates in patients with none, 1, and both preoperative risk factors were 95%, 69%, and 31%, respectively. Conclusion: Carbohydrate antigen 19-9 ≥83 U/mL and tumor size ≥2.2 cm were independent preoperative risk factors for poor outcomes in patients with resectable invasive intraductal papillary mucinous carcinoma.