Maintenance steroid therapy is associated with decreased risk of malignancy and better prognosis of patients with autoimmune pancreatitis: A multicenter cohort study in Japan

Background/objectives: The association between autoimmune pancreatitis (AIP) and pancreatic cancer (PC) remains controversial. This study aimed to clarify the long-term prognosis and risk of malignancies in AIP patients in Japan. Methods: We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study on 1364 patients with type 1 AIP from 20 institutions in Japan. We calculated the standardized incidence ratio (SIR) for malignancies compared to that in the general population. We analyzed factors associated with overall survival, pancreatic exocrine insufficiency, diabetes mellitus, and osteoporosis. Results: The SIR for all malignancies was increased (1.21 [95 % confidence interval: 1.05–1.41]) in patients with AIP. Among all malignancies, the SIR was highest for PC (3.22 [1.99–5.13]) and increased within 2 years and after 5 years of AIP diagnosis. Steroid use for ≥6 months and ≥50 months increased the risk of subsequent development of diabetes mellitus and osteoporosis, respectively. Age ≥65 years at AIP diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.73) and the development of malignancies (HR = 2.63), including PC (HR = 7.81), were associated with a poor prognosis, whereas maintenance steroid therapy was associated with a better prognosis (HR = 0.35) in the multivariate analysis. Maintenance steroid therapy was associated with a better prognosis even after propensity score matching for age and sex. Conclusions: Patients with AIP are at increased risk of developing malignancy, especially PC. PC is a critical prognostic factor for patients with AIP. Although maintenance steroid therapy negatively impacts diabetes mellitus and osteoporosis, it is associated with decreased cancer risk and improved overall survival.